Physical Health Bangladesh Project #10476

Mapping Cholera in Bangladesh

by The Village Zero Project

Project Report | May 5, 2014
New Analytic Approaches in 2014

By Maia Majumder | CEO

It's almost summer time!

These past couple of months, the Village Zero team has been hard at work re-analyzing cholera data from Matlab per the advice of our PLOS reviewers. We're using a wide variety of techniques - from machine learning to set theory and poisson regression - to assess how infrastructural AND environmental factors impact the geospatial and temporal spread of cholera in Bangladesh. So far, it seems that water and sanitation access as well as proximity to the Meghna Delta - which serves as a natural reservoir for the cholera bacterium - are the primary indicators of disease distribution in Matlab. In addition to personal infrastructural and environmental risk factors, we're also exploring how the risk profiles of one's neighbors impacts one's likelihood of contracting cholera.

By using three different analytical techniques to approach the same question, we're hoping to get the most accurate picture possible of how, where, and why cholera spreads the way it does in Bangladesh. After wrapping up our analysis, we plan on publishing our findings in an open access journal over the summer. Following manuscript submission, we plan to develop several open access tools that are based on our findings in Matlab. Ideas currently on the drawing board include (1) a cholera risk calculator that takes user-inputted information such as location, temperature, and rainfall to assess likelihood - and magnitude - of an outbreak occurring in the near future; and (2) a decision-support tool that indicates what combination of water and/or sanitation access would be least expensive but also most helpful in preventing cholera given user-inputted information on location, temperature, rainfall, etc. These tools - designed to help practitioners on the ground make the best use of their time and money - will be made available on our website on a rolling basis.

Needless to say, we have an exciting couple of months ahead. Thank you so much for your support as we work to prevent cholera in Bangladesh!

Sincerely,
Maia Majumder

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